BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 12 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Indigo Bunting In Boreal Hardwood Transition

All regionsBoreal Hardwood TransitionGeneralists

Indigo Bunting in Boreal Hardwood Transition has edged up: up 15% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+15%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
122Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Indigo Bunting in Boreal Hardwood Transition. See the full index history below.

Indigo Bunting In Boreal Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Indigo Bunting in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 26% by 2029 — from 11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.8 (95% range 4.2–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-26%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.2–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Indigo Bunting in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 26% by 2029 — from 11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.8 (95% range 4.2–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20257.84.311
20267.84.311
20277.84.211
20287.84.211
20297.84.211

Routes In Boreal Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Indigo Bunting in Boreal Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BayfieldWISCONSIN372024
RiggsvilleMICHIGAN332019
Walloon LakeMICHIGAN332004
WausaukeeWISCONSIN332024
Pleasant Valley 2MICHIGAN312024
CunardMICHIGAN302021
Iron RiverWISCONSIN302024
Weirgor SpringsWISCONSIN302024
Washington IWISCONSIN292024
HollisterWISCONSIN282024
Cedar RunMICHIGAN251999
AmbergWISCONSIN242024
Bear LakeMICHIGAN232024
Walloon Lake 2MICHIGAN232024
IrmaWISCONSIN222024
Amnicon FallsWISCONSIN222024
WilsonMICHIGAN212010
OntonagonMICHIGAN202019
HermanMICHIGAN202022
SkeelsMICHIGAN202015
Crystal FlsMICHIGAN192024
BashawWISCONSIN192024
PickfordMICHIGAN182024
Wigwam BayMINNESOTA182023
ShanagoldenWISCONSIN172024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.