BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

House Finch In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalGeneralists

House Finch in Sierra Madre Occidental has declined: down 44% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-44%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
35Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for House Finch in Sierra Madre Occidental. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, House Finch in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to rise about 10% by 2029 — from 12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 13 (95% range 1.5–25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+10%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.5–2595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±32.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, House Finch in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to rise about 10% by 2029 — from 12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 13 (95% range 1.5–25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025142.426
2026142.226
2027142.026
2028141.725
2029131.525

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording House Finch in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PrescottARIZONA1382022
CutterARIZONA552014
Clay SpringARIZONA372024
SahuaritaARIZONA322024
AmadoARIZONA312023
Bartlett ResARIZONA252024
PatagoniaARIZONA232024
RedingtonARIZONA202023
PinetopARIZONA192022
PomereneARIZONA142024
Forest LakesARIZONA122024
McnealARIZONA122024
DragoonARIZONA112009
Peña BlancaARIZONA102024
RuckerARIZONA102009
Aztec PeakARIZONA91978
San SimonARIZONA92024
Emory PassNEW-MEXICO92024
Carr MtnARIZONA82024
WilliamsARIZONA72019
Tonto Vill.ARIZONA72021
PortalARIZONA72024
SunizonaARIZONA61997
Sunizona 2ARIZONA62024
Vicks PeakNEW-MEXICO52024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.