BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

House Finch In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionGeneralists

House Finch in Prairie Hardwood Transition has surged: up 348× on the route-weighted index since 1985.

348×Since 1985TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
156Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
41YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

House Finch has surged in Prairie Hardwood Transition: up 348× on the route-weighted index since 1985.

House Finch In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, House Finch in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 15% by 2029 — from 6.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.8 (95% range 0.01–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+15%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.01–1695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, House Finch in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 15% by 2029 — from 6.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.8 (95% range 0.01–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19832029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20257.60.0015
20267.70.0015
20277.70.0015
20287.70.0016
20297.80.0116

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording House Finch in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BismarkOHIO1081995
St CharlesMICHIGAN392019
OmroWISCONSIN352001
CohoctahMICHIGAN312024
North BranchMICHIGAN301999
South BendINDIANA271991
LapeerMICHIGAN262024
KielWISCONSIN252022
Belding 2MICHIGAN242024
New TroyMICHIGAN232024
GalesburgMICHIGAN222024
Fall RiverWISCONSIN222024
MukwonagoWISCONSIN222004
HowardsvilleMICHIGAN212024
BeldingMICHIGAN202003
AdairMICHIGAN201995
EdenWISCONSIN202024
VeronaWISCONSIN202024
HoltMICHIGAN192024
Pt WashingtnWISCONSIN192024
RichmondMICHIGAN182024
ManitowocWISCONSIN182024
MiddleburyINDIANA172024
PackertownINDIANA172004
New BuffaloMICHIGAN172014

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.