BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

House Finch In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieGeneralists

House Finch in Shortgrass Prairie has surged: up 234% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+234%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
126Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

House Finch has surged in Shortgrass Prairie: up 234% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

House Finch In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, House Finch in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 87% by 2029 — from 2.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.7 (95% range 1.7–5.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±114.7%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+87%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.7–5.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±114.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, House Finch in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 87% by 2029 — from 2.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.7 (95% range 1.7–5.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±114.7%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.51.55.5
20263.61.65.6
20273.61.65.6
20283.71.75.7
20293.71.75.7

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording House Finch in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
LeotiKANSAS482006
CactusTEXAS391994
WinkTEXAS281986
PecosTEXAS272017
ElbertCOLORADO222024
FloydNEW-MEXICO192024
KimballNEBRASKA162022
LingleWYOMING162024
BennettCOLORADO132018
AgateNEBRASKA131985
HobbsNEW-MEXICO122024
StilesTEXAS112024
MentoneTEXAS112015
GilpinCOLORADO102011
SkellytownTEXAS102017
SabinosoNEW-MEXICO92021
Prospect ValCOLORADO82000
Murray LakeNEBRASKA82022
TrincheraCOLORADO72022
TimpasCOLORADO72019
PritchettCOLORADO72019
KermitTEXAS71999
FrionaTEXAS72024
WallaceKANSAS62010
BenkelmanNEBRASKA62022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.