BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 15 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

House Finch In Sierra Nevada

All regionsSierra NevadaGeneralists

House Finch in Sierra Nevada has fallen sharply: down 71% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-71%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

House Finch has fallen sharply in Sierra Nevada: down 71% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

House Finch In Sierra Nevada Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, House Finch in Sierra Nevada is projected to fall about 68% by 2029 — from 2.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.92 (95% range 0.00–4.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-68%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.92Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±54.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, House Finch in Sierra Nevada is projected to fall about 68% by 2029 — from 2.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.92 (95% range 0.00–4.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.10.004.6
20261.10.004.6
20271.00.004.5
20280.970.004.5
20290.920.004.4

Routes In Sierra Nevada

Routes recording House Finch in Sierra Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Higgins CornCALIFORNIA442024
Silver CityCALIFORNIA252013
KernvilleCALIFORNIA162008
Bass LakeCALIFORNIA132019
Greenhorn MtCALIFORNIA82008
CoultervilleCALIFORNIA82017
WoodfordsCALIFORNIA52024
PaxtonCALIFORNIA52012
ChilcootCALIFORNIA52023
Lassen ParkCALIFORNIA41980
Kings CanyonCALIFORNIA41990
Pine MountainCALIFORNIA42017
Eagle LakeCALIFORNIA21980
SattleyCALIFORNIA22024
LakeshoreCALIFORNIA22024
WawonaCALIFORNIA22024
Cottage SpgsCALIFORNIA11974
DardanelleCALIFORNIA11994
Tuolumne GroveCALIFORNIA11984
GeneseeCALIFORNIA12023
DownievilleCALIFORNIA12019
RivertonCALIFORNIA12015
Forest HillCALIFORNIA12022
Pollock PinesCALIFORNIA12023
CrestviewCALIFORNIA12022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.