BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 14 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

House Finch In Atlantic Northern Forest

All regionsAtlantic Northern ForestGeneralists

House Finch in Atlantic Northern Forest has surged: up 311% on the route-weighted index since 1980.

+311%Since 1980TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
106Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
46YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

House Finch has surged in Atlantic Northern Forest: up 311% on the route-weighted index since 1980.

House Finch In Atlantic Northern Forest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, House Finch in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to fall about 80% by 2029 — from 0.60 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.12 (95% range 0.00–3.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-80%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.12Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±47.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, House Finch in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to fall about 80% by 2029 — from 0.60 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.12 (95% range 0.00–3.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19782029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.330.003.2
20260.280.003.1
20270.230.003.1
20280.170.003.0
20290.120.003.0

Routes In Atlantic Northern Forest

Routes recording House Finch in Atlantic Northern Forest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CheshireMASSACHUSETTS761994
New HartfordCONNECTICUT261987
PittsfieldMASSACHUSETTS142016
ManchesterMAINE71995
Mt ChocoruaNEW-HAMPSHIRE72002
MckeeverNEW-YORK71995
JeffersonMAINE62010
KasoagNEW-YORK62005
MarlboroVERMONT62024
TurnerMAINE52010
Blue Ridge NNEW-YORK51999
BiddefordMAINE42019
East TroyMAINE42018
WarrenMAINE41990
N OrangeMASSACHUSETTS42023
Hope FallsNEW-YORK41995
WestbrookMAINE32024
NewcastleMAINE32024
HarmonyMAINE32014
HancockMAINE32012
GreenvilleMAINE32016
ConcordNEW-HAMPSHIRE32024
Number FourNEW-YORK32008
St Regis FlsNEW-YORK31989
S ReadingVERMONT31995

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.