BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

House Finch In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainGeneralists

House Finch in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has surged: up 13× on the route-weighted index since 1979.

13×Since 1979TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
80Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
48YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

House Finch has surged in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain: up 13× on the route-weighted index since 1979.

House Finch In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, House Finch in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to rise about 11% by 2030 — from 5.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.3 (95% range 0.00–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+11%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±43%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, House Finch in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to rise about 11% by 2030 — from 5.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.3 (95% range 0.00–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19772030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20266.80.0022
20276.70.0021
20286.50.0021
20296.40.0021
20306.30.0021

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording House Finch in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
GarrettsvileOHIO761991
New SomersetOHIO411993
Ballston LkNEW-YORK361995
Slippery RkPENNSYLVANIA301994
StrongsvilleOHIO261995
HiramOHIO202025
MacdougallNEW-YORK172025
LattasburgOHIO162025
E YoungstownNEW-YORK152025
LucerneOHIO152025
HinesburgVERMONT151994
ChurchvilleNEW-YORK132025
North PownalVERMONT132025
LenoxOHIO122025
CrescentNEW-YORK112024
BranchportNEW-YORK102024
PenfieldNEW-YORK102025
MiddlefieldOHIO102017
HarmonsburgPENNSYLVANIA102025
CloverPENNSYLVANIA92025
NaplesNEW-YORK82025
PittsfieldOHIO82024
GhentNEW-YORK72025
WaylandOHIO72016
MaysvilleOHIO72012

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.