BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

House Finch In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainGeneralists

House Finch in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has surged: up 13× on the route-weighted index since 1979.

13×Since 1979TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
80Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
47YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

House Finch has surged in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain: up 13× on the route-weighted index since 1979.

House Finch In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, House Finch in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to rise about 17% by 2029 — from 5.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.5 (95% range 0.00–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±65.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+17%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±65.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, House Finch in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to rise about 17% by 2029 — from 5.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.5 (95% range 0.00–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±65.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19772029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20257.00.0022
20266.90.0022
20276.80.0022
20286.60.0022
20296.50.0021

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording House Finch in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
GarrettsvileOHIO761991
New SomersetOHIO411993
Ballston LkNEW-YORK361995
Slippery RkPENNSYLVANIA301994
StrongsvilleOHIO261995
NaplesNEW-YORK232024
PenfieldNEW-YORK212024
HiramOHIO212021
LucerneOHIO202024
MacdougallNEW-YORK182024
HinesburgVERMONT151994
CrescentNEW-YORK112024
LattasburgOHIO112024
Valley CityOHIO112024
GhentNEW-YORK102024
BranchportNEW-YORK102024
MiddlefieldOHIO102017
HarmonsburgPENNSYLVANIA102023
RushvilleNEW-YORK92024
ChurchvilleNEW-YORK92024
EspyvillePENNSYLVANIA92024
Sugar GrovePENNSYLVANIA92024
HamburgNEW-YORK82024
St JohnsburgNEW-YORK82024
PittsfieldOHIO82024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.