BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Hooded Merganser In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionWaterfowl

Hooded Merganser in Prairie Hardwood Transition has increased: up 36% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+36%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
56Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Hooded Merganser in Prairie Hardwood Transition. See the full index history below.

Hooded Merganser In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Hooded Merganser in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 64% by 2029 — from 0.06 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.10 (95% range 0.02–0.17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±126.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+64%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.10Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.02–0.1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±126.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Hooded Merganser in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 64% by 2029 — from 0.06 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.10 (95% range 0.02–0.17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±126.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.090.020.17
20260.090.020.17
20270.100.020.17
20280.100.020.17
20290.100.020.17

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Hooded Merganser in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Indiana DuneINDIANA42012
New BuffaloMICHIGAN31993
ElderonWISCONSIN32023
N FreedomWISCONSIN32010
Fall RiverWISCONSIN31969
Pt WashingtnWISCONSIN31998
Packertown 2INDIANA22023
St CharlesMICHIGAN22010
HungerfordMICHIGAN22022
BismarkOHIO21995
DresserWISCONSIN22024
CascoWISCONSIN22008
Omro 2WISCONSIN22004
Columbia CtyINDIANA11998
FestinaIOWA11986
ScottvilleMICHIGAN12006
Big RapidsMICHIGAN11988
NashvilleMICHIGAN12021
GalesburgMICHIGAN12006
HowardsvilleMICHIGAN12024
MontereyMICHIGAN12003
RemusMICHIGAN12011
FowlervilleMICHIGAN11988
PrattvilleMICHIGAN11969
JuniataMICHIGAN12014

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.