BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Herring Gull In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastWetland birds

Herring Gull in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has edged down: down 16% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-16%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
104Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Herring Gull in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Herring Gull in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to fall about 89% by 2029 — from 20 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.2 (95% range 0.00–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±62.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-89%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±62.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Herring Gull in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to fall about 89% by 2029 — from 20 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.2 (95% range 0.00–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±62.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.00.0013
20262.80.0013
20272.60.0013
20282.40.0012
20292.20.0012

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording Herring Gull in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Six PointsNEW-JERSEY14102024
ChilmarkMASSACHUSETTS3401983
Block IslandRHODE-ISLAND1412010
IndiantownMARYLAND812014
Jones BeachNEW-YORK362013
Del HavenNEW-JERSEY351991
Kittery PtMAINE312024
Ocean CityNEW-JERSEY282024
Colonial PkyVIRGINIA261998
Cape CharlesVIRGINIA242018
Mt PleasantDELAWARE221990
Bennett MillNEW-JERSEY201994
HuntingtonNEW-YORK202023
Sachuest PtRHODE-ISLAND201990
NewburyportMASSACHUSETTS172022
SpraguetownNEW-JERSEY171997
Toms RiverNEW-JERSEY152024
St. George'S IslandMARYLAND132017
Bethany BchDELAWARE121990
Gay HeadMASSACHUSETTS112024
QuinbyVIRGINIA112006
CranburyNEW-JERSEY102015
WesthamptonNEW-YORK102024
BlackbirdDELAWARE92009
ClarksvilleNEW-JERSEY91972

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.