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Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Hermit Thrush In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestForest birds

Hermit Thrush in Northern Pacific Rainforest has surged: up 192% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+192%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
121Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Hermit Thrush has surged in Northern Pacific Rainforest: up 192% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Hermit Thrush In Northern Pacific Rainforest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Hermit Thrush in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to rise about 16% by 2029 — from 14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 16 (95% range 12–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+16%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
12–2195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±32%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Hermit Thrush in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to rise about 16% by 2029 — from 14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 16 (95% range 12–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025161121
2026161121
2027161121
2028161121
2029161221

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Hermit Thrush in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Yakutat (Short)ALASKA1111984
YakutatALASKA812024
Copper RiverALASKA792011
Harlequin L.ALASKA762024
Chichagof IsALASKA742024
Thompson PasALASKA692024
CordovaALASKA632024
HoonahALASKA632024
Thorne BayALASKA602012
HopeALASKA602024
PetersburgALASKA591987
Thorne Bay 2ALASKA582024
SewardALASKA531992
Mitkof IsleALASKA502024
ClearwaterOREGON502021
Whale PassALASKA452024
Mt. AdamsWASHINGTON402024
Sheep MtnALASKA372017
ZaremboALASKA362024
CraigALASKA352024
HainesALASKA332024
Zimovia StrtALASKA332024
Martins FyCALIFORNIA332009
Kuiu IslandALASKA302010
UkiahCALIFORNIA282011

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.