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Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Hermit Thrush In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestForest birds

Hermit Thrush in Northern Pacific Rainforest has surged: up 171% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+171%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
123Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Hermit Thrush has surged in Northern Pacific Rainforest: up 170% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Hermit Thrush In Northern Pacific Rainforest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Hermit Thrush in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to rise about 83% by 2030 — from 8.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 16 (95% range 11–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+83%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
11–2195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±41%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Hermit Thrush in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to rise about 83% by 2030 — from 8.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 16 (95% range 11–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026151020
2027161121
2028161121
2029161121
2030161121

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Hermit Thrush in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Yakutat (Short)ALASKA1111984
Thompson PasALASKA1022025
Copper RiverALASKA792011
YakutatALASKA762025
Harlequin L.ALASKA762024
Chichagof IsALASKA742024
CordovaALASKA632024
HoonahALASKA632024
Thorne Bay 2ALASKA622025
Thorne BayALASKA602012
PetersburgALASKA591987
SewardALASKA531992
Mitkof IsleALASKA492025
Whale PassALASKA452024
Zimovia StrtALASKA392025
ZaremboALASKA362024
HopeALASKA342025
Martins FyCALIFORNIA332009
HainesALASKA312025
Kuiu IslandALASKA302010
ShellrockOREGON302024
UkiahCALIFORNIA282011
Beaver CreekALASKA271977
Mt. AdamsWASHINGTON272025
Sheep MtnALASKA262025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.