BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Hermit Thrush In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertForest birds

Hermit Thrush in Chihuahuan Desert has fallen sharply: down 57% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

-57%Since 1978
5Routes In Region
43Years

Notable Signals

long arc declinecomputed index

Hermit Thrush has fallen sharply in Chihuahuan Desert: down 57% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Hermit Thrush in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.69 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±94.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029
0.00Projected 2029 index
0.00–1.495% range
±94.2%Backtest error
19752029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.010.001.4
20260.000.001.4
20270.000.001.4
20280.000.001.4
20290.000.001.4

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Hermit Thrush in Chihuahuan Desert.
CloudcroftNEW-MEXICO162024
CarrizozoNEW-MEXICO42024
PinonNEW-MEXICO22016
ToyahvaleTEXAS12011
Salt FlatTEXAS12011

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.