BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Hermit Thrush In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalForest birds

Hermit Thrush in Sierra Madre Occidental has increased: up 28% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+28%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Hermit Thrush in Sierra Madre Occidental. See the full index history below.

Hermit Thrush In Sierra Madre Occidental Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Hermit Thrush in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to rise about 126% by 2030 — from 2.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.2 (95% range 0.00–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±337.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+126%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±337.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Hermit Thrush in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to rise about 126% by 2030 — from 2.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.2 (95% range 0.00–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±337.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20265.10.0010
20275.10.0010
20285.10.0010
20295.20.0010
20305.20.0010

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Hermit Thrush in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
AlpineARIZONA172025
Mt. GrahamARIZONA132025
Aztec PeakARIZONA111978
RuckerARIZONA92009
SprucedaleARIZONA62025
Emory PassNEW-MEXICO62025
BlueARIZONA51991
Happy JackARIZONA52025
Mormon LakeARIZONA41975
Tonto Vill.ARIZONA42025
PortalARIZONA42025
FlagstaffARIZONA32022
WilliamsARIZONA32025
PinetopARIZONA32014
Carr MtnARIZONA32011
ReserveNEW-MEXICO32025
PrescottARIZONA12025
MaineARIZONA12009
Forest LakesARIZONA12016
Clay SpringARIZONA12003
Sunizona 2ARIZONA12010
DragoonARIZONA11996
Vicks PeakNEW-MEXICO12018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.