BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 32 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Hermit Thrush In Coastal California

All regionsCoastal CaliforniaForest birds

Hermit Thrush in Coastal California has surged: up 156% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

+156%Since 1973
28Routes In Region
53Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Hermit Thrush has surged in Coastal California: up 156% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Hermit Thrush in Coastal California is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.94 (95% range 0.36–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±99.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+1%Change by 2029
0.94Projected 2029 index
0.36–1.595% range
±99.7%Backtest error
19712029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.900.321.5
20260.910.331.5
20270.920.341.5
20280.930.351.5
20290.940.361.5

Routes In Coastal California

Routes recording Hermit Thrush in Coastal California.
FairfaxCALIFORNIA192024
Waterman GapCALIFORNIA152024
PescaderoCALIFORNIA102024
JofeganCALIFORNIA62009
CalpellaCALIFORNIA51986
Morro BayCALIFORNIA51975
Mark WestCALIFORNIA51975
JacksonCALIFORNIA31977
MoragaCALIFORNIA31988
Point ReyesCALIFORNIA22023
Mt LagunaCALIFORNIA21977
Lake CachumaCALIFORNIA22003
ParkfieldCALIFORNIA11974
Santa YnezCALIFORNIA12002
Big BearCALIFORNIA11986
CohassetCALIFORNIA12023
Sawmill MtnCALIFORNIA11977
ValyermoCALIFORNIA11989
FallsvaleCALIFORNIA11975
Elsinore MtnCALIFORNIA11974
AdelaidaCALIFORNIA11977
TehamaCALIFORNIA11988
CoyoteCALIFORNIA11977
Glen EllenCALIFORNIA11992
Glen Ellen 2CALIFORNIA12016

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.