BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Hermit Thrush In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionForest birds

Hermit Thrush in Prairie Hardwood Transition has surged: up 357% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+357%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
32Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Hermit Thrush in Prairie Hardwood Transition. See the full index history below.

Hermit Thrush In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Hermit Thrush in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 75% by 2030 — from 0.11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.18 (95% range 0.03–0.34). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±369.9%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+75%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.18Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.03–0.3495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±369.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Hermit Thrush in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 75% by 2030 — from 0.11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.18 (95% range 0.03–0.34). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±369.9%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.170.020.33
20270.180.020.33
20280.180.030.33
20290.180.030.34
20300.180.030.34

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Hermit Thrush in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HatfieldWISCONSIN91998
ScottvilleMICHIGAN42025
MatherWISCONSIN42019
MerrillWISCONSIN32008
Big RapidsMICHIGAN21981
Chippewa Lk.MICHIGAN21992
Barry S.G.A.MICHIGAN21999
ElderonWISCONSIN22003
Pigeon CreekWISCONSIN22025
LagrangeINDIANA12025
BeldingMICHIGAN12002
MontereyMICHIGAN12011
No BradleyMICHIGAN11989
Maple RapidsMICHIGAN11994
HungerfordMICHIGAN12017
Belding 2MICHIGAN12005
Allegan WmaMICHIGAN11996
MillvilleMINNESOTA12010
EvergreenMINNESOTA12024
Brook ParkMINNESOTA11999
LoraineWISCONSIN12018
CumberlandWISCONSIN12018
CadottWISCONSIN12025
StratfordWISCONSIN12015
Wis RapidsWISCONSIN12022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.