Species · BCR 2 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
Hermit Thrush In BCR 2
Hermit Thrush in BCR 2 has fallen sharply: down 57% on the route-weighted index since 1985.
-57%Since 1985
12Routes In Region
41Years
Notable Signals
long arc declinecomputed index
Hermit Thrush has fallen sharply in BCR 2: down 57% on the route-weighted index since 1985.
Forecast
If the recent trend holds, Hermit Thrush in BCR 2 is projected to fall about 28% by 2029 — from 17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 0.00–44). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
-28%Change by 2029
12Projected 2029 index
0.00–4495% range
±39.9%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 14 | 0.00 | 46 |
| 2026 | 13 | 0.00 | 45 |
| 2027 | 13 | 0.00 | 45 |
| 2028 | 13 | 0.00 | 45 |
| 2029 | 12 | 0.00 | 44 |
Routes In BCR 2
| Kodiak 2 | ALASKA | 81 | 2024 |
| Chiniak | ALASKA | 72 | 2024 |
| Kodiak | ALASKA | 48 | 1984 |
| Katmai N.P. | ALASKA | 18 | 2022 |
| Dillingham | ALASKA | 9 | 2019 |
| Kanektok Riv | ALASKA | 4 | 2004 |
| Cape Nome | ALASKA | 2 | 2019 |
| St. Mary'S | ALASKA | 2 | 2014 |
| Cold Bay | ALASKA | 1 | 2024 |
| King Salmon | ALASKA | 1 | 2024 |
| Salmon Lake | ALASKA | 1 | 2010 |
| Togiak River | ALASKA | 1 | 2005 |
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.