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Species · BCR 14 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Hermit Thrush In Atlantic Northern Forest

All regionsAtlantic Northern ForestForest birds

Hermit Thrush in Atlantic Northern Forest has edged up: up 23% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+23%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
156Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Hermit Thrush in Atlantic Northern Forest. See the full index history below.

Hermit Thrush In Atlantic Northern Forest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Hermit Thrush in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to rise about 101% by 2030 — from 4.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 8.3 (95% range 4.3–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±97.6%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+101%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.3–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±97.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Hermit Thrush in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to rise about 101% by 2030 — from 4.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 8.3 (95% range 4.3–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±97.6%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20268.04.012
20278.14.112
20288.24.212
20298.24.212
20308.34.312

Routes In Atlantic Northern Forest

Routes recording Hermit Thrush in Atlantic Northern Forest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
NorthfieldMAINE351981
Seboomook LkMAINE322014
Heron LakeMAINE262003
CooperMAINE242021
Baker Lake 2MAINE222013
NesowadnehunMAINE212021
BrooksMAINE202021
SabattisNEW-YORK201983
Weeks BrookMAINE192016
Blue Ridge SNEW-YORK192010
Clayton LakeMAINE182008
InletNEW-YORK182017
Big Twenty 2MAINE172009
HardwickVERMONT172024
DebloisMAINE162007
HudsonMAINE162016
TelosMAINE162006
Grnd Lk StrmMAINE152000
BrownfieldMAINE152009
Old ForgeNEW-YORK152006
EastbrookMAINE142025
PetersburgNEW-YORK142013
Baker LakeMAINE132009
Old Forge 2NEW-YORK132019
Wilson MillsMAINE122025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.