BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Hermit Thrush In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainForest birds

Hermit Thrush in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has held roughly steady: up 2% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+2%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Hermit Thrush in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain. See the full index history below.

Hermit Thrush In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Hermit Thrush in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to rise about 114% by 2029 — from 0.25 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.53 (95% range 0.09–0.98). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±65.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+114%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.53Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.09–0.9895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±65.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Hermit Thrush in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to rise about 114% by 2029 — from 0.25 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.53 (95% range 0.09–0.98). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±65.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.520.080.97
20260.530.080.97
20270.530.090.97
20280.530.090.97
20290.530.090.98

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Hermit Thrush in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BalmatNEW-YORK112008
ParishvilleNEW-YORK102024
HopkintonNEW-YORK62021
N WilmurtNEW-YORK51998
OneidaNEW-YORK41997
EllenburgNEW-YORK42005
Sugar GrovePENNSYLVANIA42023
North PownalVERMONT32011
BristolVERMONT31996
AusterlitzNEW-YORK22007
BranchportNEW-YORK22011
Cherry HillNEW-YORK21981
ClintonNEW-YORK21992
West BangorNEW-YORK21999
WillsboroNEW-YORK22024
Herner CrnsOHIO22002
ShaftsburyVERMONT22010
HinesburgVERMONT21992
RhinebeckNEW-YORK12006
HighlandNEW-YORK11969
W ShokanNEW-YORK12019
CatskillsNEW-YORK12005
GhentNEW-YORK12022
Ballston LkNEW-YORK11995
DuanesburgNEW-YORK11988

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.