BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Henslow's Sparrow In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieGrassland birds

Henslow's Sparrow in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has edged down: down 17% on the route-weighted index since 1999.

-17%Since 1999TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
19YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Henslow's Sparrow in Central Mixed Grass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Henslow's Sparrow In Central Mixed Grass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Henslow's Sparrow in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2024, near 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±64.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2024TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.05Projected 2024 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±64.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Henslow's Sparrow in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2024, near 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±64.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19952024
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20200.050.000.12
20210.050.000.12
20220.050.000.12
20230.050.000.12
20240.050.000.12

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Henslow's Sparrow in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MinneapolisKANSAS32010
KanopolisKANSAS12019
CovertKANSAS12005
SolomonKANSAS12014
Red CloudNEBRASKA12019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.