BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 33 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Harris's Hawk In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

All regionsSonoran and Mojave DesertsGeneralists

Harris's Hawk in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts has edged up: up 24% on the route-weighted index since 1980.

+24%Since 1980TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
36YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Harris's Hawk in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts. See the full index history below.

Harris's Hawk In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Harris's Hawk in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to rise about 85% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.12 (95% range 0.00–0.27). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+85%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.12Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±35.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Harris's Hawk in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to rise about 85% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.12 (95% range 0.00–0.27). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19742029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.130.000.27
20260.130.000.27
20270.130.000.27
20280.130.000.27
20290.120.000.27

Routes In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

Routes recording Harris's Hawk in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Casa GrandeARIZONA52022
WickenburgARIZONA42023
Cibola LakeARIZONA32000
Organ PipeARIZONA32017
Imperial DamCALIFORNIA31988
FlorenceARIZONA21976
Ajo 2ARIZONA22010
Cactus ForestARIZONA22019
WikieupARIZONA12017
New RiverARIZONA12015
CoolidgeARIZONA11980
LukevilleARIZONA11976
Alamo Res.ARIZONA11997
Palo VerdeARIZONA11993
Red RockARIZONA12010
Cabeza PrietARIZONA12024
Bates WellARIZONA12023
Red Rock 2ARIZONA12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.