BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 20 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Harris's Hawk In Edwards Plateau

All regionsEdwards PlateauGeneralists

Harris's Hawk in Edwards Plateau has fallen sharply: down 59% on the route-weighted index since 1995.

-59%Since 1995TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
21YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Harris's Hawk has fallen sharply in Edwards Plateau: down 59% on the route-weighted index since 1995.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Harris's Hawk in Edwards Plateau is projected to rise about 52% by 2028 — from 0.06 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.09 (95% range 0.00–0.28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±82.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+52%Change by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.09Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±82.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Harris's Hawk in Edwards Plateau is projected to rise about 52% by 2028 — from 0.06 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.09 (95% range 0.00–0.28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±82.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.100.000.28
20250.100.000.28
20260.100.000.28
20270.100.000.28
20280.090.000.28

Routes In Edwards Plateau

Routes recording Harris's Hawk in Edwards Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
AdamsvilleTEXAS31977
KempnerTEXAS11970
LeakeyTEXAS12023
MontellTEXAS12017
Allen CreekTEXAS12018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.