BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Harlequin Duck In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestWaterfowl

Harlequin Duck in Northern Pacific Rainforest has risen sharply: up 63% on the route-weighted index since 1984.

+63%Since 1984
18Routes In Region
35Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Harlequin Duck has risen sharply in Northern Pacific Rainforest: up 63% on the route-weighted index since 1984.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Harlequin Duck in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 67% by 2029 — from 0.20 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.57). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±90.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-67%Change by 2029
0.07Projected 2029 index
0.00–0.5795% range
±90.5%Backtest error
19752029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.090.000.58
20260.080.000.58
20270.080.000.57
20280.070.000.57
20290.070.000.57

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Harlequin Duck in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
ZaremboALASKA472001
Thorne BayALASKA181994
Mitkof IsleALASKA161995
Thorne Bay 2ALASKA82023
SkagwayALASKA82024
Zimovia StrtALASKA72024
Sitka (Short)ALASKA51992
JuneauALASKA42023
PetersburgALASKA41987
Juneau AltALASKA31985
HainesALASKA22022
SitkaALASKA22022
HyderALASKA22007
Stikine RiverALASKA22007
Warm BeachWASHINGTON22006
Hurricane RgWASHINGTON22023
YakutatALASKA12002
Fish RockCALIFORNIA11982

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.