BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 2 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Harlequin Duck In BCR 2

All regionsBCR 2Waterfowl

Harlequin Duck in BCR 2 has fallen sharply: down 73% on the route-weighted index since 1987.

-73%Since 1987
12Routes In Region
35Years

Notable Signals

long arc declinecomputed index

Harlequin Duck has fallen sharply in BCR 2: down 73% on the route-weighted index since 1987.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Harlequin Duck in BCR 2 is projected to fall about 100% by 2028 — from 1.3 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–9.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±102.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2028
0.00Projected 2028 index
0.00–9.795% range
±102.3%Backtest error
19852028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20240.080.009.7
20250.000.009.7
20260.000.009.7
20270.000.009.7
20280.000.009.7

Routes In BCR 2

Routes recording Harlequin Duck in BCR 2.
ChiniakALASKA122023
Cape NomeALASKA52018
Salmon LakeALASKA52018
TellerALASKA52018
Kodiak 2ALASKA22021
CouncilALASKA22018
NomeALASKA22012
KotzebueALASKA22019
Togiak RiverALASKA12003
Gweek RiverALASKA11995
Kanektok RivALASKA12003
Goodnews BayALASKA12002

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.