BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 4 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Hammond's Flycatcher In BCR 4

All regionsBCR 4Aerial insectivores

Hammond's Flycatcher in BCR 4 has surged: up 225% on the route-weighted index since 1987.

+225%Since 1987TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
35Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
37YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Hammond's Flycatcher has surged in BCR 4: up 225% on the route-weighted index since 1987.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Hammond's Flycatcher in BCR 4 is projected to rise about 37% by 2029 — from 1.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 0.66–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+37%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.66–2.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±43.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Hammond's Flycatcher in BCR 4 is projected to rise about 37% by 2029 — from 1.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 0.66–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.70.582.8
20261.70.602.9
20271.70.622.9
20281.80.642.9
20291.80.662.9

Routes In BCR 4

Routes recording Hammond's Flycatcher in BCR 4.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ChickenALASKA132024
Chena RiverALASKA111988
Kenny LakeALASKA102024
Chena Hot Spring 2ALASKA72024
EagleALASKA52024
L SalchaALASKA52023
Hather CreekALASKA42013
Kanuti CanynALASKA42024
CircleALASKA32024
LivengoodALASKA32019
Chatanika RALASKA22023
NorthwayALASKA22023
ToklatALASKA21993
Donelly DomeALASKA22018
McgrathALASKA21999
Manley Ht SpALASKA22021
Murphy DomeALASKA22024
Birch LakeALASKA12024
Tower BluffsALASKA12023
WillowALASKA12019
SourdoughALASKA11993
Swan Lake RdALASKA11993
Nicholai SlALASKA12019
Caribou Mtn.ALASKA12018
ColdfootALASKA11996

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.