BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Hammond's Flycatcher In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauAerial insectivores

Hammond's Flycatcher in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has surged: up 666% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+666%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
105Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Hammond's Flycatcher has surged in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau: up 666% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Hammond's Flycatcher In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Hammond's Flycatcher in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 35% by 2030 — from 0.53 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.71 (95% range 0.35–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±77.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+35%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.71Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.35–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±77.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Hammond's Flycatcher in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 35% by 2030 — from 0.53 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.71 (95% range 0.35–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±77.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.670.321.0
20270.680.321.0
20280.690.331.1
20290.700.341.1
20300.710.351.1

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Hammond's Flycatcher in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Dolores RivCOLORADO92025
Moon Lake 2UTAH92023
VallecitosNEW-MEXICO72025
Lost LakeCOLORADO62025
Blackhead PkCOLORADO52025
FerronUTAH52025
Comanche PkCOLORADO42024
PowderhornCOLORADO42025
Cheesman LkCOLORADO32025
Lake CityCOLORADO32003
SummitvilleCOLORADO32000
Guanella PasCOLORADO32018
TincupCOLORADO32007
Groundhog RsCOLORADO32025
Marshall PasCOLORADO32010
Stillwater PassCOLORADO32009
Owl Creek PassCOLORADO32025
Bluewater LakeNEW-MEXICO32021
Main CanyonUTAH32025
SoapstoneUTAH32025
Lost Cr. ResUTAH32016
YampaCOLORADO22008
HarmonyCOLORADO22017
Douglas PassCOLORADO22024
TarryallCOLORADO22019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.