BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Hammond's Flycatcher In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauAerial insectivores

Hammond's Flycatcher in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has surged: up 544% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+544%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
102Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Hammond's Flycatcher has surged in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau: up 544% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Hammond's Flycatcher in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 33% by 2029 — from 0.54 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.71 (95% range 0.35–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±88%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+33%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.71Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.35–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±88%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Hammond's Flycatcher in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 33% by 2029 — from 0.54 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.71 (95% range 0.35–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±88%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.680.321.0
20260.690.331.0
20270.690.331.1
20280.700.341.1
20290.710.351.1

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Hammond's Flycatcher in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
VallecitosNEW-MEXICO92024
Moon Lake 2UTAH92023
Dolores RivCOLORADO82024
Grizzly RdgeUTAH72024
Haycamp MesaCOLORADO62024
Lost LakeCOLORADO52024
Comanche PkCOLORADO42024
Cheesman LkCOLORADO32021
Lake CityCOLORADO32003
SummitvilleCOLORADO32000
Guanella PasCOLORADO32018
TincupCOLORADO32007
Steamboat L.COLORADO32024
Marshall PasCOLORADO32010
Stillwater PassCOLORADO32009
Lizard Head PassCOLORADO32024
Bluewater LakeNEW-MEXICO32021
SoapstoneUTAH32024
Lost Cr. ResUTAH32016
YampaCOLORADO22008
HarmonyCOLORADO22017
Douglas PassCOLORADO22024
TarryallCOLORADO22019
Rio Grnds RsCOLORADO22002
Wet Mtns.COLORADO21993

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.