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Species · BCR 15 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Hammond's Flycatcher In Sierra Nevada

All regionsSierra NevadaAerial insectivores

Hammond's Flycatcher in Sierra Nevada has declined: down 32% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

-32%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
35Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Hammond's Flycatcher in Sierra Nevada. See the full index history below.

Hammond's Flycatcher In Sierra Nevada Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Hammond's Flycatcher in Sierra Nevada is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.2 (95% range 0.00–5.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+9%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–5.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±55.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Hammond's Flycatcher in Sierra Nevada is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.2 (95% range 0.00–5.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.40.005.2
20272.30.005.2
20282.30.005.1
20292.30.005.1
20302.20.005.0

Routes In Sierra Nevada

Routes recording Hammond's Flycatcher in Sierra Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Lassen ParkCALIFORNIA211989
Butte MeadowCALIFORNIA182014
RivertonCALIFORNIA92025
Hat CreekCALIFORNIA92018
Eagle LakeCALIFORNIA72022
LumberyardCALIFORNIA62025
Meadow ValleyCALIFORNIA62025
Forest Hill 2CALIFORNIA52005
Silver CityCALIFORNIA42013
ChesterCALIFORNIA42016
Little TruckeeCALIFORNIA42025
Forest HillCALIFORNIA32022
Pollock PinesCALIFORNIA32025
Pine MountainCALIFORNIA32016
WestvilleCALIFORNIA22025
JohnsvilleCALIFORNIA22025
Tuolumne GroveCALIFORNIA22025
Tahoe NfCALIFORNIA21994
Chaos CraterCALIFORNIA22019
GoumazCALIFORNIA22011
CoultervilleCALIFORNIA22018
WawonaCALIFORNIA22025
Cottage SpgsCALIFORNIA11969
DardanelleCALIFORNIA11984
WoodfordsCALIFORNIA12022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.