BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 15 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Hammond's Flycatcher In Sierra Nevada

All regionsSierra NevadaAerial insectivores

Hammond's Flycatcher in Sierra Nevada has edged down: down 25% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

-25%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
35Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Hammond's Flycatcher in Sierra Nevada. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Hammond's Flycatcher in Sierra Nevada is projected to rise about 120% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 0.00–5.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±64.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+120%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–5.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±64.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Hammond's Flycatcher in Sierra Nevada is projected to rise about 120% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 0.00–5.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±64.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.40.005.3
20262.40.005.2
20272.40.005.2
20282.30.005.2
20292.30.005.1

Routes In Sierra Nevada

Routes recording Hammond's Flycatcher in Sierra Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Lassen ParkCALIFORNIA211989
Butte MeadowCALIFORNIA182014
Hat CreekCALIFORNIA92018
RivertonCALIFORNIA82023
Eagle LakeCALIFORNIA72022
LumberyardCALIFORNIA52024
Little TruckeeCALIFORNIA52023
Forest Hill 2CALIFORNIA52005
Silver CityCALIFORNIA42013
Tuolumne GroveCALIFORNIA42024
ChesterCALIFORNIA42016
Meadow ValleyCALIFORNIA42023
Forest HillCALIFORNIA32022
Pine MountainCALIFORNIA32016
WestvilleCALIFORNIA22024
Tahoe NfCALIFORNIA21994
Chaos CraterCALIFORNIA22019
GoumazCALIFORNIA22011
Pollock PinesCALIFORNIA22024
CoultervilleCALIFORNIA22018
WawonaCALIFORNIA22024
Cottage SpgsCALIFORNIA11969
DardanelleCALIFORNIA11984
JohnsvilleCALIFORNIA12024
WoodfordsCALIFORNIA12022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.