BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Hammond's Flycatcher In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesAerial insectivores

Hammond's Flycatcher in Northern Rockies has surged: up 267% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+267%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
128Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Hammond's Flycatcher has surged in Northern Rockies: up 267% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Hammond's Flycatcher In Northern Rockies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Hammond's Flycatcher in Northern Rockies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 4.2 (95% range 2.9–5.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-1%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.9–5.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Hammond's Flycatcher in Northern Rockies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 4.2 (95% range 2.9–5.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.12.75.5
20274.12.75.5
20284.22.85.5
20294.22.85.6
20304.22.95.6

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Hammond's Flycatcher in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hells CanyonOREGON422025
N Fork Cda RIDAHO402019
St RegisMONTANA372025
MivodenIDAHO352025
CentervilleIDAHO292025
Fish CreekMONTANA292024
CusickWASHINGTON282025
Marble CreekIDAHO242025
Sullivan Lake 2WASHINGTON242025
WoodmanMONTANA232025
NoxonMONTANA232023
Sullivan LkWASHINGTON231999
Thompson RivMONTANA222024
Black Mtn.OREGON212004
AlpineWYOMING212025
SunbeamIDAHO202025
CoolinIDAHO192025
CobaltIDAHO192025
Donelly 2OREGON192025
Eagle CreekOREGON182025
Deep CreekIDAHO171985
Rochat DivdeIDAHO172025
Omak CreekWASHINGTON172024
Hunter PeakWYOMING172025
NewbridgeOREGON162025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.