BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Hammond's Flycatcher In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesAerial insectivores

Hammond's Flycatcher in Northern Rockies has surged: up 230% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+230%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
127Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Hammond's Flycatcher has surged in Northern Rockies: up 230% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Hammond's Flycatcher in Northern Rockies is projected to rise about 14% by 2029 — from 3.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.2 (95% range 2.8–5.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+14%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.8–5.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Hammond's Flycatcher in Northern Rockies is projected to rise about 14% by 2029 — from 3.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.2 (95% range 2.8–5.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.02.65.4
20264.02.65.4
20274.12.75.5
20284.12.75.5
20294.22.85.6

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Hammond's Flycatcher in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MivodenIDAHO442023
N Fork Cda RIDAHO402019
AlpineWYOMING302024
Marble CreekIDAHO292023
Fish CreekMONTANA292024
CusickWASHINGTON282024
Donelly 2OREGON252024
Sullivan Lake 2WASHINGTON252024
NoxonMONTANA232023
Sullivan LkWASHINGTON231999
Thompson RivMONTANA222024
Black Mtn.OREGON212004
NewbridgeOREGON192024
St RegisMONTANA182024
Deep CreekIDAHO171985
Omak CreekWASHINGTON172024
CoolinIDAHO162024
ClintonMONTANA152024
CentervilleIDAHO142019
Whitefish LakeMONTANA142024
Hunter PeakWYOMING142024
CabartonIDAHO132023
CobaltIDAHO132024
Libby DamMONTANA132024
WoodmanMONTANA132024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.