BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Groove-billed Ani In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieGeneralists

Groove-billed Ani in Gulf Coastal Prairie has declined: down 46% on the route-weighted index since 1987.

-46%Since 1987TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
31YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Groove-billed Ani in Gulf Coastal Prairie. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Groove-billed Ani in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to fall about 13% by 2029 — from 0.24 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.21 (95% range 0.00–0.68). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-13%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.21Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±54.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Groove-billed Ani in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to fall about 13% by 2029 — from 0.24 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.21 (95% range 0.00–0.68). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19742029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.220.000.69
20260.220.000.69
20270.210.000.69
20280.210.000.69
20290.210.000.68

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording Groove-billed Ani in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Lag AtascosaTEXAS32024
L. Atascosa NwrTEXAS32023
Loyola Beach 2TEXAS22024
Loyola BeachTEXAS12009
BaysideTEXAS12010
San PedroTEXAS12023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.