BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 36 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Groove-billed Ani In Tamaulipan Brushlands

All regionsTamaulipan BrushlandsGeneralists

Groove-billed Ani in Tamaulipan Brushlands has fallen sharply: down 52% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-52%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
21Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Groove-billed Ani has fallen sharply in Tamaulipan Brushlands: down 52% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Groove-billed Ani in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to fall about 79% by 2029 — from 1.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.21 (95% range 0.00–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±127.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-79%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.21Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±127.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Groove-billed Ani in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to fall about 79% by 2029 — from 1.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.21 (95% range 0.00–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±127.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.290.001.5
20260.270.001.4
20270.250.001.4
20280.230.001.4
20290.210.001.4

Routes In Tamaulipan Brushlands

Routes recording Groove-billed Ani in Tamaulipan Brushlands.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
RaymondvilleTEXAS122024
ZapataTEXAS31984
RandadoTEXAS22014
Mirando CityTEXAS21993
El SauzTEXAS22014
RachalTEXAS12013
Agua NuevaTEXAS12018
KingsvilleTEXAS12019
EncinalTEXAS11979
San YgnacioTEXAS11985
George WestTEXAS11994
CatarinaTEXAS11994
El IndioTEXAS12000
Catarina 2TEXAS12017
GuerraTEXAS12018
Encinal 2TEXAS12013
SejitaTEXAS12021
LaredoTEXAS11995
MillettTEXAS11997
Pedro CreekTEXAS12003
HeidelbergTEXAS12022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.