BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Green-winged Teal In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestWaterfowl

Green-winged Teal in Northern Pacific Rainforest has declined: down 39% on the route-weighted index since 1979.

-39%Since 1979TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
28YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Green-winged Teal in Northern Pacific Rainforest. See the full index history below.

Green-winged Teal In Northern Pacific Rainforest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Green-winged Teal in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.06). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±179.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.02Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±179.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Green-winged Teal in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.06). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±179.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19722029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.020.000.07
20260.020.000.06
20270.020.000.06
20280.020.000.06
20290.020.000.06

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Green-winged Teal in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sheep MtnALASKA42006
Copper RiverALASKA41996
Bay ViewWASHINGTON42006
HainesALASKA31994
YrekaCALIFORNIA32007
Emigrant Lake 2OREGON32008
CordovaALASKA22014
Moose PassALASKA21985
SkagwayALASKA22009
Emigrant LkOREGON21973
South ElmaWASHINGTON21984
CarnationWASHINGTON22005
Thompson PasALASKA12015
Thorne BayALASKA12002
Crescent CtyCALIFORNIA11988
AdairOREGON12013
Nicolai Mtn.OREGON12024
SantiamOREGON12014
Warm BeachWASHINGTON11972
MendotaWASHINGTON11979

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.