BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 4 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Green-winged Teal In BCR 4

All regionsBCR 4Waterfowl

Green-winged Teal in BCR 4 has risen sharply: up 72% on the route-weighted index since 1984.

+72%Since 1984TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
48Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
42YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Green-winged Teal has risen sharply in BCR 4: up 72% on the route-weighted index since 1984.

Green-winged Teal In BCR 4 Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Green-winged Teal in BCR 4 is projected to rise about 368% by 2030 — from 0.22 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.0 (95% range 0.00–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±249.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+368%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±249.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Green-winged Teal in BCR 4 is projected to rise about 368% by 2030 — from 0.22 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.0 (95% range 0.00–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±249.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19822030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.990.002.1
20271.000.002.1
20281.00.002.1
20291.00.002.1
20301.00.002.1

Routes In BCR 4

Routes recording Green-winged Teal in BCR 4.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
SlanaALASKA192024
Hather CreekALASKA122024
Mud RiverALASKA112024
Unalakleet RiverALASKA82024
Kanuti CanynALASKA62024
Anvik RiverALASKA52024
Kanuti LakeALASKA52024
Bear CreekALASKA41990
Chena Hot Spring 2ALASKA42021
Pinoche Tral (Short)ALASKA41984
KalifonskyALASKA32016
ChickenALASKA32024
ColdfootALASKA32025
Paxson LakeALASKA31996
Mccarthy Rd2ALASKA31999
ChistochinaALASKA22025
MaclarenALASKA22025
L SalchaALASKA22002
Chena Hot SpALASKA21987
SourdoughALASKA22000
Hatcher PassALASKA22012
WasillaALASKA21983
PetersvilleALASKA22003
KachemakALASKA21998
Burma RoadALASKA22001

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.