BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 12 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Green-winged Teal In Boreal Hardwood Transition

All regionsBoreal Hardwood TransitionWaterfowl

Green-winged Teal in Boreal Hardwood Transition has held roughly steady: down 4% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

-4%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
22Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
28YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Green-winged Teal in Boreal Hardwood Transition. See the full index history below.

Green-winged Teal In Boreal Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Green-winged Teal in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2026, near 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±81.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2026TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.03Projected 2026 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±81.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Green-winged Teal in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2026, near 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±81.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692026
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20220.030.000.11
20230.030.000.11
20240.030.000.11
20250.030.000.11
20260.030.000.11

Routes In Boreal Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Green-winged Teal in Boreal Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
IsabellaMICHIGAN61987
MahtowaMINNESOTA32007
McgregorMINNESOTA32004
GreenbushMINNESOTA32009
ExelandWISCONSIN32019
CromwellMINNESOTA21994
Pine RiverMINNESOTA22019
HovlandMINNESOTA21976
DebsMINNESOTA22014
MinongWISCONSIN22021
Union TwpWISCONSIN22017
GilmanWISCONSIN21994
Washington IWISCONSIN21983
HermanMICHIGAN11997
PickfordMICHIGAN11982
BackusMINNESOTA11980
Hart LakeMINNESOTA12005
Sherry LakeMINNESOTA12006
Crane LakeMINNESOTA12015
BrainerdMINNESOTA12003
Cass LakeMINNESOTA11987
BayfieldWISCONSIN11998

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.