BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Green-winged Teal In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesWaterfowl

Green-winged Teal in Northern Rockies has edged up: up 19% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

+19%Since 1976TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
97Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Green-winged Teal in Northern Rockies. See the full index history below.

Green-winged Teal In Northern Rockies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Green-winged Teal in Northern Rockies is projected to fall about 57% by 2030 — from 0.27 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.12 (95% range 0.00–0.41). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±72.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-57%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.12Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±72.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Green-winged Teal in Northern Rockies is projected to fall about 57% by 2030 — from 0.27 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.12 (95% range 0.00–0.41). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±72.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19732030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.140.000.43
20270.130.000.43
20280.130.000.42
20290.120.000.42
20300.120.000.41

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Green-winged Teal in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Neponset ResUTAH122017
Saleratus CrUTAH122018
HarmonyWYOMING122022
LayCOLORADO112025
PathfinderWYOMING102025
MooseWYOMING91993
RawlinsWYOMING91993
Patrick Draw 2WYOMING81982
Clover CreekOREGON52025
ClarkWYOMING52001
DanielWYOMING51988
Green RiverWYOMING51981
Hayden ValWYOMING51986
Sawtooth City 2IDAHO42017
LimaMONTANA42006
E. Bear LakeUTAH42019
Patrick DrawWYOMING41980
Big SandyWYOMING42025
Gas HillsWYOMING41993
ShirleyWYOMING42008
ChewelahWASHINGTON31990
Ne EntranceWYOMING32019
Crazy WomanWYOMING32014
MaybellCOLORADO21993
MivodenIDAHO21977

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.