BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Green-tailed Towhee In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinGeneralists

Green-tailed Towhee in Great Basin has surged: up 186% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+186%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
116Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Green-tailed Towhee has surged in Great Basin: up 186% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Green-tailed Towhee In Great Basin Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Green-tailed Towhee in Great Basin is projected to rise about 21% by 2029 — from 3.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.6 (95% range 2.1–5.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+21%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.1–5.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Green-tailed Towhee in Great Basin is projected to rise about 21% by 2029 — from 3.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.6 (95% range 2.1–5.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.42.04.9
20263.52.04.9
20273.52.15.0
20283.52.15.0
20293.62.15.0

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Green-tailed Towhee in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BodieCALIFORNIA842024
Dinner StaNEVADA441993
Crowley LakeCALIFORNIA392024
Bald Mtn.NEVADA372024
Humboldt NfNEVADA352019
Humboldt Nf 2NEVADA312024
AustinNEVADA302018
Ruby ValleyNEVADA292001
Deep SpringsCALIFORNIA272022
LakeviewOREGON252024
BuchananOREGON242024
Grouse CreekUTAH231983
Barnes ValOREGON171987
Fish LakeOREGON172024
Magic MtnIDAHO162024
Flook LakeOREGON162024
Silver CityIDAHO152024
BentonCALIFORNIA132024
PaisleyOREGON112024
JarbidgeNEVADA102015
Bly 2OREGON102024
SistersOREGON102024
Pine CreekUTAH102018
LynnUTAH92023
TionestaCALIFORNIA82021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.