BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Green-tailed Towhee In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestForest birds

Green-tailed Towhee in Northern Pacific Rainforest has fallen sharply: down 69% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

-69%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Green-tailed Towhee has fallen sharply in Northern Pacific Rainforest: down 69% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

Green-tailed Towhee In Northern Pacific Rainforest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Green-tailed Towhee in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.24 (95% range 0.00–0.54). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±246.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.24Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±246.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Green-tailed Towhee in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.24 (95% range 0.00–0.54). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±246.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19722030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.240.000.54
20270.240.000.54
20280.240.000.54
20290.240.000.54
20300.240.000.54

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Green-tailed Towhee in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
South Fork MtnCALIFORNIA112022
Ship Mtn.CALIFORNIA102016
Mt ShastaCALIFORNIA62019
Friday RidgeCALIFORNIA52024
MccloudCALIFORNIA42021
DirigioCALIFORNIA42012
CecilvilleCALIFORNIA32002
Emigrant LkOREGON31992
HullvilleCALIFORNIA22006
Offield MtnCALIFORNIA22000
YrekaCALIFORNIA22011
GazelleCALIFORNIA22011
Pilot CreekCALIFORNIA21996
Elk LakeOREGON22025
ClearwaterOREGON12021
Emigrant Lake 2OREGON12025
SelmaOREGON12002

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.