BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 32 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Green-tailed Towhee In Coastal California

All regionsCoastal CaliforniaGeneralists

Green-tailed Towhee in Coastal California has collapsed: down 97% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-97%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Green-tailed Towhee has collapsed in Coastal California: down 97% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Green-tailed Towhee in Coastal California is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±357.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±357.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Green-tailed Towhee in Coastal California is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±357.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.001.2
20260.000.001.2
20270.000.001.2
20280.000.001.2
20290.000.001.2

Routes In Coastal California

Routes recording Green-tailed Towhee in Coastal California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Big BearCALIFORNIA401986
ValyermoCALIFORNIA342019
Green ValleyCALIFORNIA52022
Mt Pinos 2CALIFORNIA42024
FallsvaleCALIFORNIA21981
Cleveland NfCALIFORNIA21995
Angelus OaksCALIFORNIA22016
Mt PinosCALIFORNIA12003
Sawmill MtnCALIFORNIA12022
TujungaCALIFORNIA11970
Lake CachumaCALIFORNIA11983
WoodlandsCALIFORNIA12024
AlamarCALIFORNIA12008

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.