BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Green-tailed Towhee In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesGeneralists

Green-tailed Towhee in Badlands and Prairies has fallen sharply: down 58% on the route-weighted index since 1979.

-58%Since 1979TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
42YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Green-tailed Towhee has fallen sharply in Badlands and Prairies: down 58% on the route-weighted index since 1979.

Green-tailed Towhee In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Green-tailed Towhee in Badlands and Prairies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±133%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±133%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Green-tailed Towhee in Badlands and Prairies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±133%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19772029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.000.16
20260.000.000.16
20270.000.000.16
20280.000.000.16
20290.000.000.16

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Green-tailed Towhee in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
LeroyMONTANA32019
Bull Mtn.MONTANA22014
GlenrockWYOMING21977
BucknumWYOMING22001
Two DotMONTANA12015
ShawmutMONTANA11994
Reed PointMONTANA12022
St XavierMONTANA12009
PowdervilleMONTANA11991
BillWYOMING11999
SchoonoverWYOMING11987
Soda WellWYOMING11983
UptonWYOMING11987
MayoworthWYOMING11987
HighlightWYOMING11981
NewcastleWYOMING12007
ShawneeWYOMING12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.