BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Green-tailed Towhee In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauGeneralists

Green-tailed Towhee in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has surged: up 136% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+136%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
181Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Green-tailed Towhee has surged in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau: up 136% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Green-tailed Towhee In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Green-tailed Towhee in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 32% by 2029 — from 8.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 8.2–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+32%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
8.2–1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±33%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Green-tailed Towhee in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 32% by 2029 — from 8.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 8.2–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025117.713
2026117.813
2027117.914
2028118.114
2029118.214

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Green-tailed Towhee in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
YampaCOLORADO962023
AltonahUTAH732015
Mesaverde NpCOLORADO642024
Beck 2UTAH622018
Lost Cr. ResUTAH562018
Sybille CynWYOMING552024
Fish Lake NfUTAH532024
Douglas PassCOLORADO522024
AngoraCOLORADO432024
UncompahgreCOLORADO422024
BeckUTAH411987
PowderhornCOLORADO402023
Baxter PassCOLORADO392024
Mcphee Res.COLORADO372024
Black Sulphur CrCOLORADO342024
Grizzly RdgeUTAH342024
Wilson CreekCOLORADO312024
Moon Lake 2UTAH292023
Yellowjacket PassCOLORADO272024
PaoniaCOLORADO262024
DinosaurCOLORADO262024
RichfieldUTAH262019
Ant Flat-Ogden CanUTAH252023
CastletonCOLORADO242024
DoylevilleCOLORADO242024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.