BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 15 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Green-tailed Towhee In Sierra Nevada

All regionsSierra NevadaForest birds

Green-tailed Towhee in Sierra Nevada has increased: up 38% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+38%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
36Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Green-tailed Towhee in Sierra Nevada. See the full index history below.

Green-tailed Towhee In Sierra Nevada Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Green-tailed Towhee in Sierra Nevada is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 5.1 (95% range 1.8–8.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+4%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.8–8.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±14%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Green-tailed Towhee in Sierra Nevada is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 5.1 (95% range 1.8–8.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20265.01.78.3
20275.11.88.4
20285.11.88.4
20295.11.88.4
20305.11.88.4

Routes In Sierra Nevada

Routes recording Green-tailed Towhee in Sierra Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Eagle LakeCALIFORNIA242025
Pine MountainCALIFORNIA222017
Last ChanceCALIFORNIA192019
ChilcootCALIFORNIA182024
Little TruckeeCALIFORNIA152025
DardanelleCALIFORNIA112019
WestvilleCALIFORNIA102025
Pollock PinesCALIFORNIA102025
CrestviewCALIFORNIA92025
JohnsvilleCALIFORNIA82025
Cottage SpgsCALIFORNIA51968
WoodfordsCALIFORNIA42025
RivertonCALIFORNIA32025
Meadow ValleyCALIFORNIA32025
Bass LakeCALIFORNIA22019
LumberyardCALIFORNIA22024
Greenhorn MtCALIFORNIA22008
Silver CityCALIFORNIA21993
SattleyCALIFORNIA22025
DownievilleCALIFORNIA22013
Hat CreekCALIFORNIA22018
LakeshoreCALIFORNIA22024
Tahoe NfCALIFORNIA21994
ChesterCALIFORNIA22017
PaxtonCALIFORNIA22023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.