BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Green-tailed Towhee In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesGeneralists

Green-tailed Towhee in Northern Rockies has risen sharply: up 72% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+72%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
117Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Green-tailed Towhee has risen sharply in Northern Rockies: up 72% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Green-tailed Towhee In Northern Rockies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Green-tailed Towhee in Northern Rockies is projected to rise about 21% by 2029 — from 2.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.1 (95% range 1.2–4.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+21%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.2–4.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Green-tailed Towhee in Northern Rockies is projected to rise about 21% by 2029 — from 2.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.1 (95% range 1.2–4.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.01.24.9
20263.01.24.9
20273.11.24.9
20283.11.24.9
20293.11.24.9

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Green-tailed Towhee in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
SaveryWYOMING421995
Rock SpringsWYOMING372022
Great DivideCOLORADO212024
AnchorWYOMING212018
WoodruffUTAH202024
MooseWYOMING202024
Big SandyWYOMING202023
RandolphUTAH192024
Crawford MtsUTAH192023
Rock Springs 2WYOMING192024
Colter Bay 2WYOMING182024
Savery 2WYOMING172024
WalcottWYOMING162024
CumberlandWYOMING152024
Pryor Mtn.MONTANA132024
BoulderWYOMING132024
RelianceWYOMING132018
MoranWYOMING132016
MeeteetseWYOMING122024
AlpineWYOMING112024
Ne EntranceWYOMING102021
MammothWYOMING102024
MaybellCOLORADO92024
E. Bear LakeUTAH92022
DonnellyOREGON82006

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.