BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Green-tailed Towhee In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesForest birds

Green-tailed Towhee in Northern Rockies has surged: up 81% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+81%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
117Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Green-tailed Towhee has surged in Northern Rockies: up 81% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Green-tailed Towhee In Northern Rockies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Green-tailed Towhee in Northern Rockies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 3.1 (95% range 1.3–4.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+3%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.3–4.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Green-tailed Towhee in Northern Rockies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 3.1 (95% range 1.3–4.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.01.24.8
20273.01.24.9
20283.11.24.9
20293.11.34.9
20303.11.34.9

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Green-tailed Towhee in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
SaveryWYOMING421995
Rock SpringsWYOMING372022
Big SandyWYOMING282025
Rock Springs 2WYOMING282025
Great DivideCOLORADO262025
Savery 2WYOMING252025
AnchorWYOMING212018
Crawford MtsUTAH192023
BoulderWYOMING182025
Pryor Mtn.MONTANA162025
RandolphUTAH162025
WoodruffUTAH162025
MammothWYOMING162025
MooseWYOMING162025
WalcottWYOMING142025
LeoWYOMING132025
MoranWYOMING132016
NowoodWYOMING122025
MaybellCOLORADO102025
Hebgen LakeMONTANA102025
Ne EntranceWYOMING102025
RelianceWYOMING102025
BaggsWYOMING102025
LayCOLORADO92025
CumberlandWYOMING92025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.