BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Green Jay Population Trend in Texas

All statesGeneralists

Green Jay in Texas has surged: up 634% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+634%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
37Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Green Jay Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Green Jay has surged in Texas: up 634% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Green Jay Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Green Jay in Texas is projected to rise about 45% by 2029 — from 0.25 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.36 (95% range 0.17–0.55). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+45%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.36Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.17–0.5595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±34.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Green Jay in Texas is projected to rise about 45% by 2029 — from 0.25 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.36 (95% range 0.17–0.55). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.330.140.52
20260.340.150.53
20270.340.160.53
20280.350.160.54
20290.360.170.55

Green Jay Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Green Jay in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cavasara Cr.1220232007
Guerra1120231988
Agua Nueva920231972
San Pedro820231996
Raymondville720241975
Sejita620242009
El Sauz520231994
Rachal420231970
Kingsville420241981
Mirando City420242005
Zapata319821969
George West320242001
Hondo320242012
Loyola Beach320091994
Pedro Creek320052004
Petronila220062006
Randado220181973
Mcfaddin220112011
Hobson220242009
Laredo220232005
Brite220182008
Catarina 3220242018
Lag Atascosa120241974
Encinal120101995
San Ygnacio119821967

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.