BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Green Jay Population Trend in Texas

All statesForest birds

Green Jay in Texas has surged: up 565% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+565%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
38Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Green Jay Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Green Jay has surged in Texas: up 565% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Green Jay Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Green Jay in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.36 (95% range 0.18–0.55). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+7%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.36Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.18–0.5595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±32.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Green Jay in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.36 (95% range 0.18–0.55). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.340.150.53
20270.340.160.53
20280.350.170.54
20290.360.170.54
20300.360.180.55

Green Jay Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Green Jay in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
George West1720252001
Agua Nueva920231972
Sejita620242009
Loyola Beach 2520252010
Cavasara Cr.520252007
Hondo520252012
El Sauz520231994
Kingsville420241981
Three Rivers420251995
Encinal 2420252011
Raymondville420251975
Zapata319821969
Loyola Beach320091994
Pedro Creek320052004
Fannin320252025
Petronila220062006
Randado220181973
L. Atascosa Nwr220251998
Mcfaddin220112011
Hobson220242009
Laredo220232005
Brite220182008
Catarina 3220242018
Lag Atascosa120241974
Rachal120251970

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.