BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Green Jay In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieGeneralists

Green Jay in Gulf Coastal Prairie has surged: up 131% on the route-weighted index since 1986.

+131%Since 1986TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
36YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Green Jay has surged in Gulf Coastal Prairie: up 131% on the route-weighted index since 1986.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Green Jay in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to rise about 597% by 2029 — from 0.10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.66 (95% range 0.22–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±164.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+597%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.66Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.22–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±164.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Green Jay in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to rise about 597% by 2029 — from 0.10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.66 (95% range 0.22–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±164.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19742029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.620.181.1
20260.630.191.1
20270.640.201.1
20280.650.211.1
20290.660.221.1

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording Green Jay in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
San PedroTEXAS82023
Loyola BeachTEXAS32009
PetronilaTEXAS22006
McfaddinTEXAS22011
Lag AtascosaTEXAS12024
Loyola Beach 2TEXAS12024
L. Atascosa NwrTEXAS12023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.