BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 36 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Green Jay In Tamaulipan Brushlands

All regionsTamaulipan BrushlandsGeneralists

Green Jay in Tamaulipan Brushlands has surged: up 877% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+877%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Green Jay has surged in Tamaulipan Brushlands: up 877% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Green Jay In Tamaulipan Brushlands Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Green Jay in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to fall about 13% by 2029 — from 2.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 0.81–3.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-13%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.81–3.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±39.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Green Jay in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to fall about 13% by 2029 — from 2.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 0.81–3.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.20.653.7
20262.20.693.7
20272.20.733.8
20282.30.773.8
20292.30.813.8

Routes In Tamaulipan Brushlands

Routes recording Green Jay in Tamaulipan Brushlands.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cavasara Cr.TEXAS122023
GuerraTEXAS112023
Agua NuevaTEXAS92023
RaymondvilleTEXAS72024
SejitaTEXAS62024
El SauzTEXAS52023
RachalTEXAS42023
KingsvilleTEXAS42024
Mirando CityTEXAS42024
ZapataTEXAS31982
George WestTEXAS32024
HondoTEXAS32024
Pedro CreekTEXAS32005
RandadoTEXAS22018
Catarina 3TEXAS22024
LaredoTEXAS22023
EncinalTEXAS12010
San YgnacioTEXAS11982
CatarinaTEXAS12010
El IndioTEXAS11999
DilleyTEXAS12024
Encinal 2TEXAS12024
MillettTEXAS12012
HeidelbergTEXAS12022
Millett 2TEXAS12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.