BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Green Heron In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestWetland birds

Green Heron in Northern Pacific Rainforest has collapsed: down 79% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-79%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
60Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Green Heron has collapsed in Northern Pacific Rainforest: down 78% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Green Heron In Northern Pacific Rainforest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Green Heron in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±109.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.03Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±109.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Green Heron in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±109.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.040.000.20
20250.040.000.20
20260.030.000.20
20270.030.000.19
20280.030.000.19

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Green Heron in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MontesandWASHINGTON32005
Mendota 2WASHINGTON31995
Junction CtyCALIFORNIA22010
Bodega BayCALIFORNIA22006
YrekaCALIFORNIA22019
TualatinOREGON22012
WinberryOREGON21998
Hazel CampOREGON22011
Emigrant LkOREGON22001
GlasgowOREGON22005
SalemOREGON22023
TaholahWASHINGTON21996
South ElmaWASHINGTON22018
Pe EllWASHINGTON21996
CarnationWASHINGTON22010
Horse CreekCALIFORNIA12012
Crescent CtyCALIFORNIA12003
HoneydewCALIFORNIA12012
HullvilleCALIFORNIA11986
Fish RockCALIFORNIA12014
Shasta LakeCALIFORNIA12004
LongvaleCALIFORNIA12014
OrleansCALIFORNIA11981
AlderpointCALIFORNIA11978
LaytonvilleCALIFORNIA12009

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.