BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Green Heron In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieWetland birds

Green Heron in Gulf Coastal Prairie has edged down: down 23% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-23%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
46Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Green Heron in Gulf Coastal Prairie. See the full index history below.

Green Heron In Gulf Coastal Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Green Heron in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to rise about 13% by 2029 — from 3.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.8 (95% range 1.3–6.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+13%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.3–6.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±50.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Green Heron in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to rise about 13% by 2029 — from 3.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.8 (95% range 1.3–6.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.81.36.3
20263.81.36.3
20273.81.36.3
20283.81.36.3
20293.81.36.3

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording Green Heron in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
JuniorLOUISIANA171991
Gran ChenierLOUISIANA171982
Ltl Chenier 2LOUISIANA132011
Forked IslandLOUISIANA132024
EstherLOUISIANA102024
Forked Island 2LOUISIANA102011
Sabine Nwr 2LOUISIANA92017
CreoleLOUISIANA81987
MamouLOUISIANA81982
WinnieTEXAS82024
Ltl ChenierLOUISIANA72024
Sabine NwrLOUISIANA62008
IndianolaTEXAS62024
ChinquapinTEXAS62024
Grand IsleLOUISIANA52019
Lag AtascosaTEXAS52024
HackberryLOUISIANA42016
Hinkles FerTEXAS42021
KatyTEXAS42024
Loyola BeachTEXAS42009
Oyster LakeTEXAS42024
LafitteLOUISIANA31991
Hackberry 2LOUISIANA32021
Port AcresTEXAS32024
PetronilaTEXAS21992

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.