BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Green Heron In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyWetland birds

Green Heron in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has edged up: up 21% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+21%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
71Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Green Heron in Mississippi Alluvial Valley. See the full index history below.

Green Heron In Mississippi Alluvial Valley Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Green Heron in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 47% by 2030 — from 0.92 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.31–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±74%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+47%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.31–2.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±74%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Green Heron in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 47% by 2030 — from 0.92 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.31–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±74%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.40.342.4
20271.40.332.4
20281.40.332.4
20291.40.322.4
20301.40.312.4

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Green Heron in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
GibsonLOUISIANA122019
ShawLOUISIANA72024
Baton RougeLOUISIANA72024
South BendARKANSAS62025
RamahLOUISIANA52025
KraemerLOUISIANA42025
BerwickLOUISIANA42018
AugustaARKANSAS32001
MaynardARKANSAS32025
LaroseLOUISIANA31992
SaffellARKANSAS22019
EnglandARKANSAS22025
UlmARKANSAS22008
BardwellKENTUCKY22003
Morgan CityLOUISIANA21986
KeystoneLOUISIANA22013
MayflowerLOUISIANA22025
GonzalesLOUISIANA22011
DelhiLOUISIANA22019
IsolaMISSISSIPPI22022
Eagle LakeMISSISSIPPI22025
TippoMISSISSIPPI22012
Panther Swamp NwrMISSISSIPPI22016
Cp GirardeauMISSOURI22023
KennettMISSOURI22024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.