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Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Green Heron In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasWetland birds

Green Heron in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has collapsed: down 83% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-83%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
100Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Green Heron has collapsed in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas: down 83% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Green Heron In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Green Heron in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.49 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.94). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±125%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.9495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±125%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Green Heron in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.49 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.94). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±125%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.000.94
20260.000.000.94
20270.000.000.94
20280.000.000.94
20290.000.000.94

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording Green Heron in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
GoodwaterOKLAHOMA92021
ChandlerTEXAS72004
BlakelyARKANSAS61999
CypressLOUISIANA61987
GoodwillLOUISIANA62021
McalesterOKLAHOMA51991
EastonLOUISIANA41990
IndianolaOKLAHOMA42023
MatoyOKLAHOMA41994
EastonTEXAS42012
MassardARKANSAS32015
Four LakesARKANSAS32001
Derry 2LOUISIANA32024
NatchitochesLOUISIANA31991
EnterpriseLOUISIANA32011
SandbluffOKLAHOMA31995
New WaverlyTEXAS32003
CaledoniaTEXAS32022
MortonTEXAS32024
AthensTEXAS32024
CrowsARKANSAS21990
PoyenARKANSAS22001
StarkARKANSAS22023
Coal HillARKANSAS22023
NanceARKANSAS22022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.