BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Green Heron In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasWetland birds

Green Heron in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has collapsed: down 82% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-82%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
100Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Green Heron has collapsed in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas: down 82% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Green Heron In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Green Heron in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 0.30 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.94). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±145.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.9495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±145.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Green Heron in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 0.30 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.94). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±145.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.000.000.94
20270.000.000.94
20280.000.000.94
20290.000.000.94
20300.000.000.94

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording Green Heron in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
GoodwaterOKLAHOMA92021
ChandlerTEXAS72004
BlakelyARKANSAS61999
CypressLOUISIANA61987
McalesterOKLAHOMA51991
EastonLOUISIANA41990
IndianolaOKLAHOMA42023
MatoyOKLAHOMA41994
EastonTEXAS42012
MassardARKANSAS32015
Four LakesARKANSAS32001
Derry 2LOUISIANA32024
NatchitochesLOUISIANA31991
EnterpriseLOUISIANA32011
New WaverlyTEXAS32003
CaledoniaTEXAS32022
MortonTEXAS32024
AthensTEXAS32024
CrowsARKANSAS21990
PoyenARKANSAS22001
StarkARKANSAS22023
Coal HillARKANSAS22023
NanceARKANSAS22025
De RidderLOUISIANA22013
NatchezLOUISIANA22025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.