BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Green Heron In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsWetland birds

Green Heron in Central Hardwoods has fallen sharply: down 75% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-75%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
153Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Green Heron has fallen sharply in Central Hardwoods: down 75% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Green Heron In Central Hardwoods Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Green Heron in Central Hardwoods is projected to fall about 60% by 2030 — from 0.41 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.17 (95% range 0.00–0.56). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-60%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.17Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Green Heron in Central Hardwoods is projected to fall about 60% by 2030 — from 0.41 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.17 (95% range 0.00–0.56). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.280.000.67
20270.250.000.65
20280.220.000.62
20290.190.000.59
20300.170.000.56

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Green Heron in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PulaskiMISSOURI62015
Daniel BooneKENTUCKY51984
Lebanon JunctionKENTUCKY52025
Iron BridgeKENTUCKY41988
SedaliaMISSOURI42024
HillsboroALABAMA31996
Valhermoso Spg 2ALABAMA32014
TrianaALABAMA32012
RussellARKANSAS32021
BremenILLINOIS32024
YorkILLINOIS32024
CorydonINDIANA32024
CampbellsvilleTENNESSEE32017
Indian Mound 2TENNESSEE32013
SwaimALABAMA22014
FultonARKANSAS22018
RoyaltonILLINOIS22013
BrazilINDIANA22024
BelmontINDIANA22023
EvansvilleINDIANA22019
NewberryINDIANA22019
CyprssINDIANA22010
Sulphur LickKENTUCKY22018
Kings MtnKENTUCKY22022
JohnsonvilleKENTUCKY22018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.