BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Green Heron In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionWetland birds

Green Heron in Prairie Hardwood Transition has increased: up 38% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+38%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
154Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Green Heron in Prairie Hardwood Transition. See the full index history below.

Green Heron In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Green Heron in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 16% by 2029 — from 0.72 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.61 (95% range 0.10–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-16%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.61Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.10–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±30.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Green Heron in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 16% by 2029 — from 0.72 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.61 (95% range 0.10–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.640.141.1
20260.630.131.1
20270.620.121.1
20280.610.111.1
20290.610.101.1

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Green Heron in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
LawrenceMICHIGAN42024
Drayton PlnsMICHIGAN41978
Sherburne NrMINNESOTA42024
KielWISCONSIN42022
RemusMICHIGAN32024
MottvilleMICHIGAN32019
HoltMICHIGAN32008
PrattvilleMICHIGAN32018
OwendaleMICHIGAN31994
CohoctahMICHIGAN32024
Le CenterMINNESOTA32023
WeyerhauserWISCONSIN32024
TrempealeauWISCONSIN32016
PardeevilleWISCONSIN32024
Fall RiverWISCONSIN32024
GreshamWISCONSIN32024
Cherry ValILLINOIS22002
South BendINDIANA21990
Columbia CtyINDIANA22022
EllisINDIANA22021
Packertown 2INDIANA22024
Big RapidsMICHIGAN21990
NashvilleMICHIGAN22024
No BradleyMICHIGAN22024
JuniataMICHIGAN22024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.