BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Green Heron In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionWetland birds

Green Heron in Prairie Hardwood Transition has risen sharply: up 57% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+57%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
155Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Green Heron has risen sharply in Prairie Hardwood Transition: up 57% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Green Heron In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Green Heron in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 28% by 2030 — from 0.85 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.62 (95% range 0.12–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-28%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.62Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.12–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Green Heron in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 28% by 2030 — from 0.85 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.62 (95% range 0.12–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.650.151.1
20270.640.141.1
20280.630.131.1
20290.620.131.1
20300.620.121.1

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Green Heron in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MinnetonkaMINNESOTA82025
LawrenceMICHIGAN52025
CoopersvilleMICHIGAN52025
PrincetonMINNESOTA52025
Drayton PlnsMICHIGAN41978
Chippewa Lk.MICHIGAN42025
Sherburne NrMINNESOTA42024
Fall RiverWISCONSIN42025
KielWISCONSIN42022
HowardsvilleMICHIGAN32025
HoltMICHIGAN32008
PrattvilleMICHIGAN32018
OwendaleMICHIGAN31994
Le CenterMINNESOTA32023
LockportOHIO32025
Cherry ValILLINOIS22002
South BendINDIANA21990
Columbia CtyINDIANA22022
EllisINDIANA22021
Packertown 2INDIANA22025
Big RapidsMICHIGAN21990
RemusMICHIGAN22025
JuniataMICHIGAN22024
RochesterMICHIGAN22025
RichmondMICHIGAN22024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.