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Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Greater Scaup In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestWaterfowl

Greater Scaup in Northern Pacific Rainforest has fallen sharply: down 50% on the route-weighted index since 1984.

-50%Since 1984TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
23YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Greater Scaup has fallen sharply in Northern Pacific Rainforest: down 50% on the route-weighted index since 1984.

Greater Scaup In Northern Pacific Rainforest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Greater Scaup in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2026, near 0.12 (95% range 0.00–0.44). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±379.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2026TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.12Projected 2026 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±379.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Greater Scaup in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2026, near 0.12 (95% range 0.00–0.44). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±379.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19722026
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20220.120.000.44
20230.120.000.44
20240.120.000.44
20250.120.000.44
20260.120.000.44

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Greater Scaup in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sheep MtnALASKA112014
SitkaALASKA102015
KetchikanALASKA11972
CordovaALASKA12021
HyderALASKA12003
Copper RiverALASKA12006

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.