BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Greater Scaup In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestWaterfowl

Greater Scaup in Northern Pacific Rainforest has fallen sharply: down 50% on the route-weighted index since 1984.

-50%Since 1984TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
23YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Greater Scaup has fallen sharply in Northern Pacific Rainforest: down 50% on the route-weighted index since 1984.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Greater Scaup in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2026, near 0.12 (95% range 0.00–0.44). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±379.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2026TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.12Projected 2026 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±379.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Greater Scaup in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2026, near 0.12 (95% range 0.00–0.44). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±379.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19722026
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20220.120.000.44
20230.120.000.44
20240.120.000.44
20250.120.000.44
20260.120.000.44

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Greater Scaup in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sheep MtnALASKA112014
SitkaALASKA102015
KetchikanALASKA11972
CordovaALASKA12021
HyderALASKA12003
Copper RiverALASKA12006

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.