BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 4 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Greater Scaup In BCR 4

All regionsBCR 4Waterfowl

Greater Scaup in BCR 4 has collapsed: down 82% on the route-weighted index since 1985.

-82%Since 1985
27Routes In Region
39Years

Notable Signals

long arc declinecomputed index

Greater Scaup has collapsed in BCR 4: down 82% on the route-weighted index since 1985.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Greater Scaup in BCR 4 is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–3.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±282.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029
0.00Projected 2029 index
0.00–3.795% range
±282.8%Backtest error
19832029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.000.003.7
20260.000.003.7
20270.000.003.7
20280.000.003.7
20290.000.003.7

Routes In BCR 4

Routes recording Greater Scaup in BCR 4.
Pinoche Tral (Short)ALASKA621984
Nabesna RoadALASKA352024
Paxson LakeALASKA81997
CircleALASKA61995
CantwellALASKA62013
ToklatALASKA62000
Seven LakesALASKA61994
Kenny LakeALASKA42013
SlanaALASKA32019
ChistochinaALASKA32021
Ft. RichrdsnALASKA32000
MaclarenALASKA22024
MonahanALASKA22014
Bear CreekALASKA21986
KachemakALASKA22018
ColdfootALASKA22024
Donelly DomeALASKA22007
Kanuti CanynALASKA21994
Kanuti LakeALASKA22018
Galena (Short)ALASKA21985
KuskulanaALASKA22023
Mccarthy Rd2ALASKA22024
SourdoughALASKA12023
Swan Lake RdALASKA12022
Burma RoadALASKA12010

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.